last settle (2026-11-01)+$122.72
cumulative (paper)+$122.72
open tickets0
latest board certain/strong1 / 28
price archive days3
Open book
| No open tickets — everything is settled or none placed yet. |
Latest certified board (certain + strong, ask<97, ACTIVE)
| certainty-2026-W08 2026-11-03 13:56 · certainty-2026-W08.json |
|---|
| player | market | strike | 90% ceiling | ask | tier | |
|---|
| Luther Burden III | recs over | 2 | 2.4 | 95¢ | CERTAIN | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 100 | 29.85 | 50¢ | STRONG | |
| Rome Odunze | rec_yds over | 30 | 11.29 | 64¢ | STRONG | BOUGHT |
| Emanuel Wilson | rush_yds over | 20 | 8.49 | 52¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 90 | 29.85 | 60¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 80 | 29.85 | 67¢ | STRONG | BOUGHT |
| Rome Odunze | rec_yds over | 25 | 11.29 | 72¢ | STRONG | |
| Kalif Raymond | recs over | 2 | 0.69 | 65¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 70 | 29.85 | 75¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | recs over | 7 | 3.8 | 59¢ | STRONG | |
| Luther Burden III | rec_yds over | 30 | 12.2 | 78¢ | STRONG | BOUGHT |
| Luther Burden III | rec_yds over | 40 | 12.2 | 67¢ | STRONG | |
| Rome Odunze | recs over | 3 | 1.81 | 63¢ | STRONG | |
| Rome Odunze | rec_yds over | 20 | 11.29 | 79¢ | STRONG | |
| Cooper Kupp | rec_yds over | 15 | 5.08 | 76¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 60 | 29.85 | 82¢ | STRONG | |
| Luther Burden III | recs over | 3 | 2.4 | 82¢ | STRONG | BOUGHT |
| Cooper Kupp | rec_yds over | 10 | 5.08 | 83¢ | STRONG | BOUGHT |
| Luther Burden III | rec_yds over | 25 | 12.2 | 83¢ | STRONG | |
| Rome Odunze | rec_yds over | 15 | 11.29 | 85¢ | STRONG | |
| Rome Odunze | recs over | 2 | 1.81 | 85¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | recs over | 5 | 3.8 | 86¢ | STRONG | |
| D'Andre Swift | rush_yds over | 40 | 23.09 | 75¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | rec_yds over | 50 | 29.85 | 87¢ | STRONG | |
| Luther Burden III | rec_yds over | 20 | 12.2 | 89¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | recs over | 6 | 3.8 | 75¢ | STRONG | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | recs over | 4 | 3.8 | 95¢ | STRONG | |
| AJ Barner | rec_yds over | 10 | 3.08 | 85¢ | STRONG | |
| Cooper Kupp | recs over | 2 | 1.02 | 80¢ | STRONG | |
Settled days
| day | positions | wins | day net | cumulative |
|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 16 (12W) | +$122.72 | +$122.72 |
Edge & calibration
settled single-market positions: 14 | archive tickers matched: 0
fill band n hit avg fill edge pts
70-79 3 1.00 77.3 +22.7
80-89 3 0.67 84.0 -17.3
90+ 1 1.00 90.0 +10.0
<70 7 0.86 55.5 +30.3
Brier (implied from fill): 0.1728 (lower better; 0.25 = coin)
Verdict: sizing decision due when 4 weeks of these tables exist (roadmap 2026-12-01).| stat | 90% factor | n obs |
|---|
| carries | 0.735 | 4132 |
| rec_yds | 0.340 | 14859 |
| recs | 0.640 | 14859 |
| rush_yds | 0.580 | 4132 |
| targets | 0.835 | 14859 |
| fit | value |
|---|
| fitted | 2026-11-03 |
| prob shrink | −0.048 @ ≥0.9 |
| source sha | a76cca493f6f1bfb… |
Pipeline
| leg | artifact | age |
|---|
| nightly feature build | playerweeks_2026.csv | 6h ago |
| live status pull | live_status-latest.json | 6h ago |
| price journal (latest) | prices-2026-11-09.jsonl | 6h ago |
| latest board file | certainty-2026-W08.json | 0h ago |
| latest settle | settle-2026-11-01.json | 1h ago |
| projections (latest) | projections-2026-W08.json | 21h ago |
Doctrine
- Paper only · autonomous pre-kickoff placement · hold to settlement.
- CERTAIN = empirically ≥90% (per-stat calibrated ceiling, f×p10) → $30.
- STRONG = band position, empirically ~75–88% → $20; doctrine floor is 70%.
- Rung down the strike until only injury can beat it, even when certainty prices expensive.
- Caps: $75/player, $150/game. Every aggregate recomputed from per-game boxes.