2026-11-05 · 20:15 ET · model lines ready 16:54 · injury feed 9h ago
MARKET NOT OPEN YETthis game trades with real money
Kalshi has not posted the bets for this game yet — for Thursday night games they usually appear Thursday morning. Our model has already drawn its lines: each one below is the deepest number we would happily buy — a result the player beats about 9 times out of 10. At 9:30 am we compare every posted line to these and buy only what clears the bar. If nothing does, we buy nothing — and that is a decision, not a shrug.
The lines we want
How to read a row: the bar spans this player’s likely range, the marker is the line we’d buy, and the green mark is the 9-in-10 safe floor behind it. “Our guess” is the model’s middle case; “his low” is the 1-in-10 floor before any discount.
Zay Flowersreceiving yards at/below 12.3WATCH
our guess 97.5his low 25.49-in-10 safe line 12.3 · buy only if the posted line is at or below this
Derrick Henryrushing yards at/below 33.2WATCH
our guess 82.0his low 53.59-in-10 safe line 33.2 · buy only if the posted line is at or below this
Bhayshul Tutenrushing yards at/below 24.5WATCH
our guess 72.7his low 39.59-in-10 safe line 24.5 · buy only if the posted line is at or below this